Donald Tusk's Vision for Poland: Unlocking the Future or Selling It Short?

Since his return to power, Donald Tusk has sought to project the image of a moderniser, a pragmatic leader who will untangle the bureaucratic web that is supposedly strangling Polish business. His political philosophy, however, seems to be based on a controversial belief that minimal state spending is optimal. Believing that a business-friendly government will propel Poland into the future, Tusk seems to ignore the potential erosion of state authority, institutional robustness and collective trust in public goods. And this is a price that may prove too high for a country still struggling with inequalities and a fragile social fabric.

This philosophy was on full display on 10 February when Tusk, alongside Finance Minister Andrzej Domański, unveiled his economic strategy at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Held under the evocative symbolism of Poland’s millennium of statehood, the event was designed to convey a sense of historical momentum — a return to the courage and boldness of Boleslaw the Brave, Poland’s first king. But beyond the spectacle, the underlying message was clear: deregulation would be Poland’s way forward, just like it is under Trump & Musk in the US.

The star of the event was not a government official but a businessman — Rafał Brzoska, the founder of InPost, whose parcel locker network revolutionised Poland’s delivery market. It was possible largely due to the weaknesses of the underfunded and mismanaged state postal service. Presented as Tusk’s equivalent of Elon Musk, Brzoska was publicly tasked with deregulating the Polish economy. This gesture, which Brzoska accepted with a theatrical ‘challenge accepted’, underlined Tusk’s belief in outsourcing economic leadership to private capital.

Brzoska’s credentials as a disruptive entrepreneur are well known, and his methods raise questions about the kind of society such a vision fosters. His views on work-life balance are extreme; he expects employees to devote their lives to their work. Labour flexibility, often celebrated by proponents of deregulation, in the Polish practice usually means precariousness and the erosion of workers’ rights protection. Moreover, InPost’s rapid expansion exploited regulatory loopholes — parcel lockers springing up in chaotic, unplanned locations became a meme, symbolising both convenience and urban degradation. Brzoska, on the other hand, became an idol for Poland’s managerial elite — a symbol of raw, unfettered market success.

‘When you cannot afford a fence, but you stroke an agreement with Inpost’. Source: miejscawewroclawiu.pl

While Brzoska’s rise exemplifies entrepreneurial energy, it also highlights the tension in Tusk’s vision. Poland’s development cannot rely solely on deregulation and flexible labour markets. The most successful societies balance market efficiency with robust public services, social protection and strategic state intervention. Tusk’s invocation of the World Happiness Report as a benchmark for Poland’s aspirations was particularly revealing — and ironic. The top countries in this ranking, including Finland, Denmark and Norway, are welfare states with comprehensive public services and high levels of equality. Their secret is not deregulation, but rather the strength of their institutions and the safety net they provide.

The Vision

Tusk’s concrete proposals, though ambitious on paper, betray the same bias. His government plans to invest PLN 180 billion in railway infrastructure and PLN 65 billion in expanding the energy transmission network. In addition, capital market reforms aim to support high-risk ventures, raise limits on retirement savings accounts (IKZE), reduce capital gains tax and promote ETFs. Deregulation, both narrowly (reducing administrative burdens) and broadly (Brzoska’s systemic reform), is the linchpin.

However, when juxtaposed with the World Bank’s recent recommendations for Poland, critical gaps emerge. The Bank emphasises sustainable urban development, the digitalisation of public services and the integration of local investments into global value chains. It urges Poland to increase citizen participation and empower local governments to improve operational efficiency. While Tusk’s strategy focuses on transport and energy, it lacks a comprehensive vision for urban planning, smart cities and participatory governance. There is little mention of using digital technology to modernise local government, not to mention increasing public participation in decision-making.

Equally, glaring is the absence of a robust social agenda. Tusk’s reliance on business dynamism sidesteps the pressing issues of income inequality, labour market insecurity and poverty. His government talks about cutting red tape, but is silent on improving protection for vulnerable workers. The Polish labour market remains characterised by precarious contracts and low wages for many, especially in sectors outside the major urban centres.

Underfunded Ambitions

These concerns are compounded by the chronic underfunding of Polish science and research. Despite ambitions to increase spending on innovation, the reality remains stark: Poland consistently ranks among the lowest in the European Union in terms of R&D spending. In 2022, R&D spending amounted to just 1.46% of GDP, well below the EU average of 2.27%. This underinvestment stifles the potential for home-grown technological breakthroughs and limits the ability of Polish universities and research institutions to compete internationally.

While countries like Germany, France and even Estonia are aggressively positioning themselves as AI innovation hubs, Poland has yet to articulate a coherent strategy for harnessing AI for economic growth. Without significant public and private investment in AI research and development, Poland risks becoming a technology consumer rather than a creator, perpetuating its reliance on foreign innovation. While at the same time is one of the major exporters of IT specialists, so far, it could not create a sustainable environment for them at place — it seems that this will not change.

Polish Success Story

This emphasis on deregulation and market solutions is all the more puzzling given the fact that, on macroeconomic terms, Poland’s post-Socialist history, and especially the last two decades are, after all, a success story. Between 1990 and 2020, Poland’s GDP per capita grew by more than 600%, exceeding $18,000 by 2022 (World Bank). Exports rose from $14 billion in 1991 to more than $355 billion in 2022. The country’s poverty rate fell from 16% in 2005 to less than 5% in 2021. Infrastructure development is a measurable reality: Poland now has more than 4,800 kilometres of motorways compared with just 400 kilometres in 1990. These gains were driven not by deregulation alone, but by a mix of strategic public investment, EU funds and social policies that lifted millions out of poverty.

It was precisely this state-led development model — combining market dynamism with public investment and EU support — that underpinned Poland’s success. Deregulation had its place, but it was not the sole driver. The risk now is that Tusk’s government, in its zeal to emulate Anglo-American models, forgets the formula that worked for Poland.

Short-term Success

There is also a political subtext to Tusk’s rhetoric. By aligning himself with Brzoska, he seeks to bind the business elite to his coalition, thereby insulating his fragile parliamentary majority. This alliance may provide short-term stability, but it risks alienating voters who expect more from the state than just efficiency slogans. The controversy over flood relief, where celebrity endorsements masked operational failures, is a case in point. Optics trumped substance; victims were left behind.

Ultimately, Tusk’s challenge is not just to simplify regulations or woo entrepreneurs. It is to articulate a vision that combines market dynamism with social cohesion and institutional resilience. Poland’s future prosperity depends on more than parcel lockers and stock market announcements. It requires investment in people, cities and public services — building on the hard-won successes of the past three decades.

The risk is that Tusk’s government, fixated on short-term media wins and market orthodoxy, will miss this opportunity. And in an increasingly unstable world, where social trust and state capacity are vital assets, that is a gamble Poland can ill afford.

Photo: Donald Tusk (source: YouTube)

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