Trillion-dollar baby in times of profligacy
The bad and the good signs of what to expect from the future German government. New Chancellor Merz must be strong on foreign policy, but not on domestic policy
Konrad Watrin
So far unheard of words. Such are the headlines of leading German media and politicians these days: “Dictators of the world triumphant” (NZZ); “Time of evil deeds”, “Time of profligacy” (Ruchlosigkeit), as Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock put it, regarding the actions of autocratic leaders from Moscow to Ankara, Beijing or Donald Trump in Washington. “Outright treason” (FAZ) is how top historian H.A. Winkler (Berlin) described the latter after his humiliation of Ukrainian President Zelensky. But where were all those journalistic wise guys in the years before?
The shock in Europe is now at the prospect of being pushed off the security wagon, which has been Europe’s favourite place for decades. Now the Old World is supposed to be independent and militarily strong again by 2030, according to top brass from Brussels like Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas.
German election
What if we have to be there first? In the recent Bundestag elections on 23 February 2025, the German electorate found itself in the unfortunate position of not being able to punish the parties responsible for the current weakness (i.e. the CDU and the SPD), even though it had been openly doing so for more than a decade. Roughly between 15 and 50 per cent, with regional differences, voted for the extremists on the left and right. But overall – despite the strong vote for the AfD and Die Linke in eastern Germany and Berlin, and the exclusion of the FDP from parliament – the German electorate has once again behaved relatively sensibly. Almost 80% turned out to vote, which is a record. Above all, they gave the centre-right CDU and SPD parties a small majority to govern the country and prevent a takeover by the new right.
The first steps taken by the leaders of the two parties, the incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and the likely vice-chancellor Lars Klingbeil (SPD), are encouraging. They seem to be aware that Europe is now looking to Germany for leadership. With the pressure of the new right behind them, they can dare to do so – otherwise it could only end in disaster (if those dark boys were to take the lead). In the week before their inauguration, they faced the enormous difficulty (with the parliamentary decision of 18 March) of laying the foundations for the future policy of big spending by forging an unofficial triple coalition for the time being, including the Greens (soon to be in opposition). We are talking about a trillion euro baby. Which will no doubt have to be borrowed from the future.
Most of the media criticised this strategic manoeuvre because Merz, even before taking office, was unable to keep his pre-election promise not to open all the doors to a flood of debt (which Olaf Scholz wanted his liberal partner Christian Lindner to do; when he refused, the “traffic light coalition” broke up and caused these elections). There is already enough criticism of this on one side.
Merz wants to make a strong impression
On the other hand, what is more important at the moment is that the actors show a strong, effective willingness to give Europe strong signals to act more courageously against all the threats that have accumulated: Russian aggression, the Chinese challenge, support for Ukraine, the return to some kind of stability in the Middle East, the Islamist threat and international terrorism. But above all: to provide answers to the growing divisions within our societies and to the central question of how to build Europe in a position of strength, possibly alongside our former great ally the USA (without antagonising the Orange Man Donald Trump (DT)) and vis-à-vis Russian imperialism.
So Merz has to be strong outwardly – without being a strongman domestically (which the majority of Germans still resist for historical reasons). It is too early to predict the outcome of possible tariff wars between the US and Europe and the damage DT will cause from Canada to good old Europe. In the past, these differences have been overcome fairly quickly. But this time?
Of course, it all depends on the unpredictable mind of Trump, who Putin is just teaching what a no-deal policy (instead of a new deal) he is launching. But it’s more about Putin’s ruthlessness. Or China’s possible attempt to expand by violating international law (Taiwan). Or the willingness of India and the Global South not just to exploit the West’s current weakness and move into the niches of cheap opportunities (e.g. oil and gas). Why not put pressure on them to adhere to the principles of democracy, anti-racism (Israel) and fair play (trade)?
But there are other positive signs
The willingness of the new British Labour government to act on behalf of Europe, including in military matters within Nato; the readiness of French President Macron to share the nuclear umbrella with his European compatriots (we shall see his price); there is the prospect that this Polish government of the other Donald (Tusk) will be able to play its role in the “Weimar Triangle” with strength and energy, i.e. to give Europe a lead (for Eastern Europe) together with France and Germany. And then there is the decisiveness and readiness of the future German government (whose team we do not yet know), which could be expected to be more than necessary.
Photo: “Forward again”, reads this poster at a CDU rally following the party’s victory in Germany’s general election on 23 February 2024 (source: YouTube)
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