François Bayrou — saviour of the republic?
The very course of seeking this appointment, as well as its source, the collapse of the government as a result of the use of paragraph 49.3 of the Fifth Republic’s Constitution will go down in history. The choice was debated until the last minute. One week before the name of François Bayrou wasn’t event seriously present in the debate. And on6 December, the French media reported, the would-be premier ministre met with Macron, and their rendez-vous ended, diplomatically speaking, not well.
And there were other names, like Bruno Retailleau and Sébastien Lecornu, which appeared more often on the top place of prime minister candidate list.
Nevertheless, here we are. Who is François Bayrou, what was behind his choice, and what does this herald in the near future?
François Bayrou was appointed Prime Minister of France by President Emmanuel Macron on 13 December, replacing Michel Barnier, who had resigned following a vote of no confidence by the National Assembly.
The new prime minister, born in 1951 in Bordères, François Bayrou, is a seasoned French politician and the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement, known as MoDem. Bayrou commenced his political career in 1982 as a general councillor and subsequently served as a deputy for the Gaullist Union for French Democracy. From 1993 to 1997, he held the position of Minister of National Education in the governments of Édouard Balladur and Alain Juppé. In 2007, following the dissolution of the UDF, he established the Democratic Movement, known as MoDem — a party which could be now treated as prophecy of the upcoming political era.
Throughout his political career, Bayrou sought election to the French presidency on three occasions: in 2002, 2007 and 2012. His respective votes were 6.84%, 18.57% and 9.13%. In 2014, he was elected mayor of Pau, a city in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region. Subsequently, in 2017, he assumed the role of Minister of Justice in Macron’s inaugural government, but soon thereafter resigned due to an investigation into the hiring of parliamentary assistants at the MoDem, one very similar to the ongoing Le Pen’s trial.
Initially, his appointment was considered an expression of gratitude and recognition from Macron, who had finally succeeded in creating a strong, established and liberal centre, a vision that guided the radically centrist politics of Bayrou. MoDem is part of Renew Europe at European level, having previously left the European People’s Party, and it claims to be a liberal-Christian democratic party.
After more than half a decade of Macronist rule, Bayrou is already recognised as one of the central figures of the power camp. Even though before 2017 he was one of the liberal critics of Macron, portraying him firstly as a banker, not a politician, a true incarnation of neoliberal politics. Nevertheless, after refusing to stand in the 2017 elections, he embraced Macronism as his own.
What are the main tasks of the new premier ministre? Firstly, the creation of a government and then a new budget. In order to fulfill the second one, he might be forced to create a much broader cabinet. So far, the left was somehow prompted to defend its independence, now the tables might have turned.
Speculation surrounds the prospect of an unofficial agreement, the objective of which would be to forestall another election. This agreement is purported to encompass the Republicans, the Socialists and potentially the Greens. This is also the trajectory of Macron’s actions over the past week, but have they been efficacious? As is widely acknowledged, the consequences of his actions have been ambivalent. In any case, governing as before through decrees and decisions taken at the presidential table is no longer a viable option.
Other tasks? As part of a possible coalition, especially one that includes the left, could there be further renegotiations on, among other things, changes to the pension law, reducing it, spreading it over a longer period, or introducing specific solutions within the various professions? There might be quite a few options here.
Members of La France insoumise, Manuel Bompard and Mathilde Panot have already announced their intention to table a motion of censure against the new head of government.
The communists and ecologists, for their part, say they are waiting to see before making up their minds. The same goes for the RN, whose leader, Jordan Bardella, said he did not want to censure a priori. This manoeuvre seems another element of dediabolisation — after all, according to Macron, it was the nationalists and Mélenchon who led to this crisis, two equal extremes.
Meanwhile, Les Républicains have indicated that its participation in the government will be contingent upon the success of François Bayrou’s proposed initiative. Republican MPs are this afternoon making their party’s participation in the government conditional on the “project” that new Prime Minister François Bayrou will present to them. They have acknowledged that their choice is less “easy” than with his predecessor Michel Barnier, according to participants in a group meeting who spoke to AFP. “At that point, we will be in a position to make an informed decision regarding our participation,” stated group leader Laurent Wauquiez.
One thing is certain in this whole puzzle. If the Macronists try to govern just like they are doing now, this government too will fall. A coalition is needed for stability, and the wider, the better. But reforms are also needed — will they come?
France is waiting for a new direction, but the question is whether François Bayrou will be able to define it and then navigate a divided country.
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Cover photo by Jacques Paquier.
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