The end of great illusion — France at crossroads

In France, the last twelve months have seen: three resignations of prime ministers; the dissolution of the National Assembly; three rounds of elections and three defeats of those in power; a record length of time without a government; a record collapse of a new government. Finally, the parliament failed to adopt a budget and, for the first time in history, after 66 years, the legendary Article 49.3 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic, which allowed laws to be passed without a majority, was defeated. The Macronist illusion of power collapsed, the balance of political power in France changed. A budget crisis and a potential economic collapse were needed for that. Better later than never?

The current crisis represents the second most significant political upheaval in French history since the Fifth Republic’s inception in 1958. The preceding crisis, in 1962, saw President De Gaulle assume dictatorial powers under Article 16 of the Constitution, leading to the collapse of the government and the necessity for military intervention. Over six decades ago, France struggled to remain in control of the colonies: following the Vietnam War, Algeria rose to fight for independence, but the French imperialists refused to see this reality.

The current threat does not come from outside. It comes directly from the heart of the French elite, personified by Emmanuel Macron — a man so clever that he deceives even himself. It appears that the very idea of taking over the old guard of socialists and organising a liberal turn must have contained the seeds of decline. For who would replace the old socialists? The same goes for playing on the weaknesses of the right: who would step in?

As we know today, French politics is made up of three opposing tribes. The left around Nouveau Front Populaire, the right, or the Le Pen’s party, and finally the Macronist centre, or rather the centre-right representing the business and the elites. Interestingly, however, it is possible to argue that all these divisions have found their place in Macron’s politics, in his policy choices. But the day for that will probably come at the next presidential election. For now, let us focus on the latest acts of the drama.

The vote on 5 December did not surprise anyone. Bernier — a man of the old republican guard, of the old style and monotony — was perfectly pushed into a corner by the right wing, the same right wing of the nationalists that he had helped to de-diabolise since his appointment with official talks, invitations, and even mentions in official documents. Yes, he directly mentioned them as the political actor under whose influence he had changed his opinions and policy proposals.

His proposed budget was expected to deliver €60 billion in gains to tackle the deficit of more than 6%, 20 in tax increases, 40 in spending cuts. However, the nationalists demanded amendments: a limit on immigration by recalling a law from a year ago, a limit on benefits for immigrants and their access to health care, a cut in the proposed energy tax of around 2-3 billion and, finally, a reform of the electoral system to a majority system. On these demands, Bernier agreed to present a new anti-immigration law and cancel the energy tax hike, and to appoint a team led by the well-known Professor Perrineau on electoral reform — but these changes, apart from those concerning energy, were to take place only in the new year.

As a result, Le Pen called for the reversal of the 5% cut in Medicare reimbursements and the increase in pensions by the rate of inflation not from next July but immediately, from January. The Prime Minister backtracked on the cut in medicine reimbursements, officially admitting that he had done so under the influence of Marine Le Pen herself. However, he rejected the issue of pension valorisation.

The situation ahead of the budget debate could be summed up by saying that each of the three parliamentary blocs is proposing an alternative solution to the problem: the left is calling for higher taxes on the rich, the liberals are talking mainly about budget cuts, and the nationalists are vacillating between these options, criticising tax rises on the one hand and opposing cuts — unless they affect bureaucracy and immigrants

In the end, the article 49.3 came into motion, the budget was meant to be pushed without a majority, but the vote of no confidence was to be held. Everyone thought Le Pen was bluffing, however….

Chaos

Appointed in August, the new government was a minoritarian one and immediately faced a vote of no confidence at the initiative of the Nouveau Front Populaire, a left-wing coalition that had come first in the July elections. Ironically, Barnier’s survival can be attributed to the tacit support of Rassemblement National. Marine Le Pen’s grouping had informally allied itself with the Macronists, anticipating a robust anti-immigration policy and a series of concessions from the Barnier government. However, this makeshift coalition has not withstood its inaugural challenge — the vote on the 2025 budget thanks to its main founders, the far-right.

After all, we have seen all kinds of political alliances lately. First, an alliance of the left with the centre-right, from the NFP to the Republicans, to contain the threat from the far right. Then, as soon as the coalition talks failed, or rather, as soon as Macron’s manoeuvre to split the NFP by excluding the Socialists and the Greens with the help of potential Prime Minister Lucie Castets failed, the talks went in the other direction. Negotiations started between the Macronists and the nationalists, they formed this government. And now there is an alliance between the left and the right to overthrow the government.

Which way will France go? That remains to be seen. The options are many. One is to repeat the same coalition and govern with the previous year’s budget. Another option would be to constitute a government with the left, again without Melenchon’s party. A centre-right government leaning towards Le Pen or …. a technocratic government, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic.

Vox populi

And what do the French say about this? A recently conducted poll by the Elabe institute for BFMTV indicates that 54% of respondents is largely satisfied with the collapse of the government. In response to the question of who should succeed him, 66% of respondents indicated a preference for a technocratic government comprising experts.

The poll was conducted on the day following the fall of the government. In contrast, 37% of those surveyed expressed support for the formation of a government coalition between some left-wing parties and the presidential camp. 36% of respondents indicated that they would be in favour of including the right-wing Republicans in the coalition. 32% indicated that they would support a nationalist government. A government comprising solely left-wing parties currently enjoys the support of 23 per cent of the French population.

The issue of the government’s collapse has resulted in the formation of two distinct voter blocs. On the one hand, voters affiliated with the New Popular Front (72%) and National Unity (70%) express satisfaction, while those aligned with the presidential camp (89%) and the Republican Right (78%) indicate discontent.

It is evident that no potential government has a clear and majoritarian support. This inevitably leads to the conclusion that politicians will base their decisions on conflicting messages. At this point, it is clear that the people prefer war to governing. Or that the situation in France reached a moment when a political confrontation is inevitable.

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