The invasion of Lebanon has already happened once [interview]
In Israel, the memories of fighting in Lebanon are never good, no matter if we talk about the First (1982-2000) or the Second Lebanon War (2006). Thus, there may be in the future a backlash from the Israeli public. Is the military capable of reaching the Litani River? Yes. But will it be able to hold that territory? In my opinion, no. Of course, the IDF is much stronger than Hezbollah, with tanks, aircraft and modern artillery. It also has access to very sophisticated electronic and IT weapons. This does not change the fact that it can lose in a guerrilla fight. The region is similar to Gaza, where the IDF irretrievably lost some 350 soldiers fighting Hamas, a much, much weaker organisation. To this day, no one can say that Israel controls Gaza, only parts of it. Moreover, in Gaza, Israel controlled all the surrounding areas, from the sea to the Egyptian border, effectively cutting the Strip off from the world. This is not the case here. Support will be able to reach the Hezbollah fighters from many directions — says Israeli journalist and writer, Meron Rapoport.
Why has the Israeli’s ‘special operation’ in Lebanon been started right now?
The pressure has been built up since the 7 October. Hezbollah attacked Israel, launching missiles onto the Northern Israel in order to, as it was portrayed, lift some weight from the Palestinians in Gaza. In consequence, well over 60 thousand Israelis left their homes during that period.
Nevertheless, what happened now is a combination of two things. One is that the war in Gaza has come out to be a failure for Israel. Of course, Hamas is weakened, but it’s still there. The liberation of hostages is almost impossible without a deal, and thus there are no feasible goals for the IDF to achieve right now in Gaza. That’s why the attention went to the North. The second is the success of walkie-talkie attacks in Lebanon, and the killing of Nasrallah as well as a considerable portion of Hezbollah’s high command. The operations went better than anyone has predicted, and thus, many Israeli decision makers thought that this is a unique opportunity to hit Hezbollah even harder – with the blessing from the USA.
What are the military objectives of the operation?
Of course, the first objective is to enable the return of northern Israelis to their homes, but I do not think anyone seriously thinks that this is possible any time soon. Any operation, even a huge ground invasion, will not allow this. Hezbollah will still be able to shell targets in the north for a long time.
The second objective, of course, is to weaken the Axis of Resistance, or Axis of Evil as they call it in Israel, by attacking Hezbollah. The general perception is that permanently weakening Hezbollah and thereby ridiculing Iran is now possible.
And do you see any political goals here?
The official aim is as I said. However, this is not taken seriously, I think everyone understands that even if Israel takes over the areas south of the Litani River, so 40 kilometres from the border, Hezbollah will still be able to shell these areas. Interestingly, this is just as impossible as it was previously impossible to liberate the hostages or liquidate Hamas.
But then, there is the strategy of deterrence.
Of course. I believe that when it comes to the political objective, one should refer to the return to the strategy of deterrence, to show that Israel is still capable of using it. It is Israel’s ability to attack targets at will throughout the region, wherever they may be — demonstrating its military, technological and diplomatic superiority — that, according to Israel’s leaders, guarantees the country’s security. This operation is therefore intended to serve as an example of how, even after 7 October, a major defeat, Israel is able to resort to a strategy of escalation. It’s still strong and powerful a year later.
Do you think that an Israeli operation in Lebanon, which not be limited to the areas south of the Litani River, is at all possible in terms of IDF capabilities?
Israeli soldiers in Lebanon, 1993.
A limited operation in the Litani River area will be a huge problem in itself. We must remember that after the full-scale invasion of Lebanon in 1982, from 1985 Israel limited its operations to the occupation of precisely these areas of southern Lebanon, occupying them until 2000 unsuccessfully. Throughout this period, Israeli forces were constantly attacked by Hezbollah and other resistance forces. This is a mountainous area, covered with caves, valleys and streams, extremely good for guerrilla warfare, especially in autumn and winter. Moreover, since the last Israeli attack in 2006, the region has been fortified and covered with a network of tunnels, similar to those in Gaza.
In Israel, the memories of fighting in Lebanon are always bad. Whether we are talking about the First (1982-2000) or the Second Lebanon War (2006), and thus, there may be in the future a backlash from the Israeli public. Is the military capable of reaching the Litani? Yes. Will it be able to hold that territory? In my opinion, no.
The IDF is much stronger than Hezbollah, with tanks, aircraft and modern artillery. It has access to very sophisticated electronic and IT weapons, but it can lose in a guerrilla fight nevertheless. The region is similar to Gaza, where the IDF irretrievably lost some 350 soldiers fighting a much, much weaker organisation like Hamas. To this day, no one can say that Israel controls Gaza, only parts of it.
Moreover, in Gaza, Israel controlled all the surrounding areas, from the sea to the Egyptian border, effectively cutting the Strip off from the world. This is not the case here. Support will be able to reach the Hezbollah fighters from many directions. To surround Hezbollah, Israel would have to take the whole state, just like in 1982. And that turned out to be a dramatic failure, even with the support of Lebanese Christians, the Phalangist party and its paramilitary wing, and a potential candidate for the presidency and rule over the country. All of it failed. Now the IDF cannot count on any proxies or allies in Lebanon, so I doubt that this kind of operation would be a case this time.
Actually, the Lebanese politicians from all sides are trying to avert this kind of development, they are talking about the unity in facing this invasion.
Yes, and Israel is referring to its operations as incursions, but nevertheless, in this kind of conflicts you never know. It can effortlessly escalate.
A couple of days ago we read an article in the Jerusalem Post trying to answer whether the lands of Lebanon were promised to the Jewish nation. Do you believe that the colonisation of the southern Lebanon is possible?
Currently, there are voices claiming that the Litani river region used to be a part of the Greater Israel, from Sinai to Tyre. Nevertheless, the truth is that even when it comes to Gaza, where Israel used to have colonies and settlements until 2005, right now, there are no evidence that these colonial enterprises are coming back. Even Netanyahu said publicly that Israel is not going to colonise Gaza once again.
I believe that the pressure exists, but it’s not taken seriously by anyone at the moment. Even Gideon Saar, who is very right wing – and I know him personally – is not a man that might push for colonies and settlements in the southern Lebanon. Ben Gvir appears to be weaker right now, he cannot topple the government by himself witty, before that was possible.
What is the situation of Netanyahu’s government?
Very strangely the Netanyahu’s government with Saar’s party, New Hope, is much stronger than it used to be, having right now 68 votes supporting it. The popularity of the coalition spiked, thanks to the killing of Nasrallah, but nevertheless, it’s still unpopular. According to the polls, the right-wing coalition would lose the election. The big question is whether the next election will be held in 2 years, as it was planned. This is the biggest question of Israeli politics right now, and that’s what Netanyahu wants to achieve.
How?
For example, he can just prolong the war. As I said, once Israel occupied Lebanon for 15 years, with its proxy allies, project to reshape the whole politics… Many soldiers were killed in the guerilla attacks, but the occupation lasted. I guess it could last two years from now too. And this is what Netanyahu wants, and once again there is no option for total victory, I cannot imagine Hezbollah being completely beaten, surrendering, whatever. The same goes for Hamas. It’s unimaginable right now.
Netanyahu just wants to buy more time. But there are other layers to it. One is the economic situation. Yesterday we saw Moody’s downgrading Israel’s credit rating to Baa1, which is the level similar to one of Peru, or other countries of the Third World. Israel considered itself to be a high-tech, connected country, but now there is a nearly complete blockade of the country, flights are off…
Inflation?
Prices are skyrocketing. One cannot find any tomatoes, and if you find them, you will pay 7 dollars per kilogram, before the war it was just 1. Many sectors of the Israeli economy are stagnant, for example the construction sector, because of the lack of Palestinian workers, who are banned from entering the country. The tourist sector is also dead, no one wants to come to Israel. And the economy plays an important role in sustaining the war effort.
Secondly, the global support is getting weaker. Not only on the left, but even among centrist parties. In the end, the actions of the international courts, like the ICJ and ICC, are working, this could even change the policy of Kamala Harris if she is elected.
Thirdly, the Axis of Resistance, or as it’s called by Israeli politicians, the Axis of Evil, is not over. Iran is not disappearing, Hezbollah and others neither. The Palestinians are not going anywhere too, they may resist, even in a less violent way. The vision of the Greater Israel will not be accepted by anyone, especially without any rights for the Palestinian nation. On this three fronts, it will be difficult for Netanyahu to implement his vision of an endless war, a war of attrition, he has even once said that: ‘we have to be a new Sparta’! I am not sure if Israelis are happy with this vision.
I have many, many friends who have left this country, the elite, educated people. I do not believe that Israel can go on like this unless… unless Netanyahu is ready to get a deal with the Palestinians, which would end the occupation. If the war ends due to a ceasefire brokered by Americans, there might be a possibility of a deal, a fall of government and a new election.
This is the only way to get out of the attrition war in which we’re stuck. But after what we’ve seen lately, there are more and more Israelis fantasising about a total victory. Which is a complete illusion.
Eventually, it will change with the rising piles of bodies coming back from Lebanon.
All the factors will bring Israel down.
When Israel withdrew from the south Lebanon in 2000, there was a massive euphoria, even nationwide euphoria.
I think Israel has been playing with fire. Tel Aviv feels strong, powerful and mighty, but ultimately the bad memories of the Lebanese quagmire would return. Once the number of casualties rises, the memories of the past will come back, and the possibility of a political deal might arrive.
There is even a possibility that Israel, by pushing its limits, by pursuing an endless war, will force the international community to intervene and stop the violence. This also could end up with a settlement. Maybe this intensification of war will bring us close to ending the war in Lebanon or in Gaza, but might be more wishful thinking than any kind of sober analysis.
I guess the operation in Lebanon will at least last until the presidential election in the US. Netanyahu might calculate that attacking Hezbollah now would make it easier for Trump, who can now accuse Biden/Harris of procuring another disaster.
It will certainly go on for a few weeks, the question is what will happen after the election. Biden, who is more than unhappy with what’s been going on in the region, actually, might use his last months of presidency to force Israel into a deal.
These two months between the election and the inauguration of the new presidency might give him space to escape his impotency in relations with Israel. It could be like that, it happened before also, presidents used to utilize this time to achieve something groundbreaking. Until the elections, nothing will change unless a huge number of Israelis die, and I hope, it won’t happen. Only this may change things. Because, as we know, if Israel kills civilians, the world is completely indifferent.
Meron Rapoport is an Israeli journalist and writer, winner of the Napoli International Prize for Journalism for an inquiry about the stealing of olive trees from their Palestinian owners. He is ex-head of the News Department in Haaertz, and now an independent journalist.
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