The Israeli escalation trap has exploded
On 1 October, the Islamic Republic of Iran took action in response to the killings of ‘Axis of Resistance’ leaders Hasan Nasrallah, Faud Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh. The rocket attack came after the IDF declared the beginning of the invasion – or as it’s framed by the Western media – ‘incursion’ in Lebanon, which forced one third of the country’s population to leave their homes. Tehran has stated that it did not intend to escalate – unless Israel did so first. It also indicated that it would respond with military action if provoked. It would be fair to say that we are not fully aware of the details of the operation or its scope. It is not possible to estimate the number of rockets at this time. Neither the Iranians, nor Netanyahu’s regime has not provided us with sufficient credible information. Nevertheless, we might attempt to anticipate what might occur next.
Israel has indicated that it will respond in a robust manner to the Iranian shelling. The IDF has indicated that this will occur later tonight. Jake Sullivan commented that Iran would face significant consequences and that the US would do its utmost and work with Israel to ensure this outcome. Israel had indicated to Iran that nuclear facilities and the oil industry might be targeted. It may prove challenging for Iran to rebuild such infrastructure. Nevertheless, the only thing that has actually happened so far were attacks against civilian infrastructure in Beirut. Residents and journalists were posting whole night images of a mayhem brought by Israeli jets. The response so far was limited, one would say, very limited.
The attack was more than impactful.
Even if the rockets that penetrated the anti-rocket systems, which we can see on hundreds of online videos, were the only ones that hit the targets, they were more than enough. The psychological factor — apart from the military one, which is kept secret, but as we know, Israelis love to gossip — right now is playing the first fiddle, and it’s no surprise. One should keep in mind that so far, Israelis were rather safe. Even the April missile attack was, in fact, a hoax, so they could organise cruises to see the devastated Gaza, and publish their genocidal fantasies about the Greater Israel from the Sinai to Tyre to the North, and to the Euphrates to the East.
Now the real war has visited their doorsteps, for the first time since the 7 October.
It would be remiss of us not to acknowledge the number of missiles that have passed through the defences. In addition to this, we must also consider public perception. Israel has always been cautious in responding to any indications of public unrest, particularly when there are perceived shortcomings in its defence capabilities.
Even though the rockets hit military bases and airports — some reports are talking about destroyed F-35, but still, censorship is blocking any proof-based statements — it seems that it seems that Iran struck this time intending to cause harm, but nevertheless in a limited way. In the end, the civilian infrastructure wasn’t targeted, what’s more claims about of Israel’s earlier warning of an attack, via a US-Iranian channel, are circulating online.
Nevertheless, the main aim was to appease the growing discontent among the Axis of Resistance. For many weeks IRGC and Iranian diplomats were full of words, but lacking in action. This led many to think that Tehran was a paper tiger, nothing more. Nobody precipitated that the potential response would be so huge in scale. This aim was achieved, or even over-achieved.
In reality, one could say, just like Israeli talking heads, that such a scale of rocket bombardment might push Netanyahu’s cabinet to ‘de-escalate through escalation’, and thus, respond to Iranian attack with it own, directed on Tehran and atomic research facilities. In the end, the Iranian attack was just that, Tehran thought that it could push Israel to a corner with its own escalation, securing a strategic pause in the military actions.
But is it even possible? Actually, the actions of Iran have been forced by Israel, which has set a trap with its genocidal and barbaric attacks in the region. Israel created a dilemma for its opponents: either you respond, or you lose influence in the region and any remaining credibility.
Currently, Israeli leaders – but also a considerable portion of citizens – appear to be drugged with the idea of invading Lebanon no matter the costs.
It appears that the much-anticipated plans are now entering the implementation phase. With or without the colonisation and occupation of Lebanon, just like in the 80s and 90s, it would be remiss of us not to mention that Netanyahu has made his intentions clear by announcing a new security architecture for the region. Indeed, he recently conveyed to the Iranian people that the ‘regime’s tenure’ might soon be coming to an end. So the escalation is much more likely. Some already say that the region is in the state of an all-out war.
But what’s even more important, the latest developments, especially the moves coming directly from Netanyahu, have inadvertently reduced the likelihood of the Democrats winning the election. As he allegedly once said, the USA is something you manipulate. So he just did it. Starting an all-out war just one month before the elections means that he is keeping the semi-conscious president Biden as a hostage. Biden, let us remember, has naively self-identified from the beginning as a Zionist. Instead of showing appreciation, Netanyahu showed to the Democrats that no matter what they did, and no matter how they supported Israeli’s apartheid practices against their own voters, he preferred Donald Trump. One reflection immediately rises: if Democrats lose, they lose because of Gaza.
Quick gains from Trump’s win, derived from his Islamophobic and racist approach to the Middle East and Iran in particular, make one painful truth for Netanyahu more obscure. Once again he is pushing Israel into isolation. If they lose now, in four years Democratic politicians can say to AIPAC lobbyists: no more, we’ve lost because of you once. And he is doing everything to achieve this goal.
It is inevitable that the conflict will escalate further.
Without nuclear deterrence on the Iranian side, there is no threat that is going to push Israel to limit its aggressive expansion. The only thing would be counteractions coming from France, Great Britain, and the US itself. But so far, it’s obvious that the narrative of the global war between East and West, from the battlefields of Ukraine, to Palestine and Sahel, has taken root in their minds as much as in the minds of Russian theorists.
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