Saxony and Thuringia: two elections in Germany’s East
Posted by Thomas Klikauer and Danny Antonelli
Elections were held in the two East-German states of Thuringia and Saxony on 1 September 2024. In Thuringia the neo-fascist AfD became the strongest party with a monstrous 32.8% of voter support. In other words, 1/3 of the voters in Thuringia chose the neo-Nazis. The CDU arrived as a distant second place finisher with 23.6%. And as widely predicted, the newcomer BSW got 15.8% – from zero to almost 16% in one election – so that on its first try Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW will enter Thuringia’s state parliament.
The semi-socialist Linke (The Left) used to more or less run the show in Thuringia. They ended up with just 13.1% of the vote. Germany’s social-democratic SPD only managed 6.1%. Global warming did not seem to matter to the people of Thuringia as the environmentalist Greens received a tiny 3.2%. Even worse, the staunchly neoliberal party that is part of Germany’s governing coalition at the federal level, the FDP, got a punishing 1.1%. Both the Greens and the FDP failed to get over Germany’s infamous 5% hurdle. But at least, so far, all the democratic parties have excluded any cooperation with the neo-fascist AfD.
Meanwhile in Saxony the CDU – Germany’s conservatives – remained the strongest party with 31.9% of the vote, just a tick ahead of the neo-fascist AfD who garnered 30.6%. The neophyte BSW got a respectable 11.8% in Saxony as well. The SPD vaulted over the 5% barrier with 7.3%, as did the Greens by the thin margin of 5.1%.
Even though the Linke didn’t get over the 5% hurdle, only getting 4.5%, their candidates were able to get directly elected in two constituencies, which ensures that they will get six seats in Saxony’s parliament. Since no democratic party will cooperate with the neo-Nazi AfD, three political parties will have to work together in a coalition government in Saxony.
The creation of a new state government will be difficult in both German states. Since all democratic parties currently exclude jumping in bed with the far right AfD, it is still unclear whether the newly elected BSW will join a coalition or become an opposition party.
The political disaster in the state of Thuringia is that the neo-Nazi AfD has reached one of its important technical/political goals. With 1/3 of the seats (32 seats) in Thuringia’s parliament it holds a so-called “veto minority” [Sperrminorität] position. With this “veto minority” in hand Germany’s most successful neo-Nazi party since Hitler’s Nazis (1933-1945) can do six things:
- The AfD can prevent public access – exclude the public from the state parliament [the Landtag].
- Parliament can be dissolved through the AfD’s initiative.
- The president of the state parliament can be voted out of office.
- Judges can be appointed to Thuringia’s Constitutional Court.
- A parliamentary control commission can be established.
- The state’s constitution can be changed.
The AfD’s electoral success essentially allows the neo-Nazis to block the state from governing effectively. The AfD’s success came in wake of corporate media-engineered dissatisfaction with the policies of Germany’s federal government, portraying the coalition government – for months on end – as indecisive, quarrelling, plagued by distrust and infighting, and being on the verge of breaking down. In truth, nothing like this was going on. Still, the AfD and BSW scored high on purely “federal” issues such as migration, crime and border security.
Even though these policy areas belong to the federal level of government, in both states the two parties (AfD & BSW) were able to mobilize people who were previously non-voters more than the other parties. Fear, xenophobia and racism also played a role – as they did in 1933. Reality obviously has nothing to do with the fear of migrants. It has been generated because the AfD is only particularly strong in regions with few migrants or refugees. Fear of the unknown drives people into the arms of the right-wing extremists, as it did in the 1930s. Fear-mongering works well.
The endless hype about the dangers posed by migration in Germany’s mainstream media, as in the AfD and far right echo chambers, supported the deeply xenophobic AfD with its base, the reality-challenged, truth-challenged worshipers of a “golden era” past that never actually existed except in the propaganda created by both the Nazis and the Soviets. In any case, the AfD is a “one-trick-pony”: migration, migration, migration.
The xenophobic AfD is especially popular in remote and rural districts where Germans are largely by themselves, not in places where there is an actual influx of refugees or migrants. Thuringia is a good example for that. In an electoral area called “Kyffhäuserkreis I”, the neo-Nazi AfD gained an astonishing 46.5%. But only 5.6% of the population in the district are foreigners.
In the “Saale-Orla” district it’s the same: 47.4% for the AfD while only 5.6% are foreigners. Interestingly, the AfD only received 16.4% and 19.3% in “Jena I” and “Jena II” where there are more than twice as many foreigners as in “Kyffhäuser” or “Saale”.
Migration seems to lose its “stranger danger” illusion as soon as even the most backward and inward-looking German experiences foreigners first-hand. In other words, the AfD’s propaganda invents a phantom evil and creates a danger that does not exist. Their captivated cohorts are afraid to look under the bed and discover that there is no foreign monster threatening their existence – except of course the homegrown monster AfD.
This sort of decoupling from reality makes the AfD almost unassailable. The AfD’s apparatchiks simply invent their own non-truths. The best example of this at the moment comes from the USA where hysteria was created by the Republican candidates and their claim that “Haitians are eating pets” in Ohio. No matter how many times it has been factually disproven, the claim persists. Bomb threats at government offices and schools in Ohio are evidence that the extremists are reveling in the lie.
Companies in Germany’s East repeatedly warned against an anti-immigrant AfD because those firms need immigrants as workers. On election night, when a TV-journalist asked Jörg Urban, the AfD’s top candidate in Saxony about this, he falsely claimed that East-German business associations were “state-financed.” This is a bare-faced lie. However, it works with the ignorant base because it insinuates that the much hated “old parties” (read: Germany’s democratic parties) are behind it.
The far right propaganda principle is as simple as it is effective. Like Hitler, Trump and Putin, the AfD always likes to play the victim. If reality does not fit with the AfD’s own story, then some evil “behind the scene forces” must have manipulated reality in order to harm the AfD. This is the paranoid-style of right-wing politics. This has been part of the standard right-wing playbook since time immemorial.
Why does it work so well with so many voters? We must first ask the question: Who are these voters? In Thuringia, a whopping 38% of 18-to-24 year-olds chose the AfD. Pensioners were more reluctant to support the AfD. Among the over-70s, the AfD got only 19%. Given the support of the youth, the far right AfD seems to have a bright future.
What would actually happen in Thuringia and Saxony if the AfD’s racist program could be implemented? Would the AfD deport all foreigners, as it planned at their Wannsee 2.0 conference? The Republicans in the USA have big plans to deport people. “Now he’s proposing to rip spouses and children from their families and homes and communities and place them in detention camps,” Biden said of Trump. “He’s actually saying these things out loud, and it’s outrageous.” Isn’t that what was proposed at Wannsee 2.0?
The most important question is: Can the economy in those two East-German states survive without immigrant labor? The AfD’s propagandistic hallucination is to “mobilize domestic human resources.” Depopulation has guaranteed that those “human resources” no longer exist. There aren’t even that many unemployed people in both states. In Thuringia there were only 6.2% unemployed, according to figures from August 2024. Even in the most unlikely case of full employment, the labor shortage would not disappear. Recent studies suggest that up to 250,000 skilled workers will be needed in Thuringia by the year 2035. The AfD’s full employment wet dream is not even close.
Bad news for Thuringia continues. Depopulation will reduce the population in the state to 1.9 million by 2035. About a third of those will be retired. In the labor market, about 20% of all jobs will be unfilled. The AfD’s fear-mongering pipe dreams cannot possibly work. In addition, the demographic development began to set in a long time ago.
One must remember that the AfD is not about numbers, economics, or factual reality. The AfD is about destroying democracy. Like the Republican right-wing in the USA, it is using right-wing propaganda to achieve this goal. Hitler’s Propaganda Minister, Joseph Goebbels, said,
“This will always remain one of the best jokes of democracy – that it gave its deadly enemies the means by which it was destroyed.”
In Thuringia employers and corporate bosses are grateful for every refugee that can enter the labor market. Not surprisingly, East-Germany’s employer federation is strongly against the AfD. Employers do understand numbers. The AfD’s propaganda is nonsense, but it works on the ignorant and disillusioned! The neo-Nazi AfD is the strongest political party in Thuringia today because at least one-third of all voters supported it. This is a clear warning to the democratic parties that disillusion leads to fascism.
The AfD and its cult-like followers are hardly shaken by facts. They live in their own online-determined fact-free world that unswervingly creates an emotional environment against “the other.” The result of all this will be even more devastating. If local companies, businesses, schools and hospitals collapse because of lack of workers, people in Thuringia will move to regions with better infrastructure. Even the elderly may not decide to stay in Thuringia. Nurses and carers are disappearing already anyway.
Young people with a need to have a brighter future often move to the western part of Germany. If the AfD prevails, the East-German state of Thuringia might just end up being a region empty of people. Of course, if that goes far enough, then property will be so cheap that Germans from the western half will rush in to buy up the remnants of what is left behind. Perhaps that would then lead to a re-blossoming of a peaceful and progressive Thuringia by 2050.
The democratic parties in the upcoming Brandenburg election scheduled for 22 September have to take into account the results of the elections in Saxony and Thuringia. Especially the social-democrat SPD in Brandenburg is in danger of also stumbling because of the media-induced negative image of its federal coalition government. This will be even more uncomfortable for Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) who now resides in an electoral constituency in the East-German state of Brandenburg.
Virtually all parties represented in Germany’s federal government have recorded significant losses of voter support in recent months. It is rather difficult to assume that anything will change the electoral mood in Brandenburg. The neo-fascist AfD is at 29% and doesn’t look like it is going to drop too far down from that figure. The election outcomes in Saxony and Thuringia could also serve as encouragement for many voters in Brandenburg to “send a message” to the federal government.
In 2019 at the last state election the SPD was already not expected to achieve an election victory. In the end the SPD was still able to squeeze ahead of the neo-fascist AfD. Meanwhile, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW: 14%) might become a key factor in the formation of a new government.
Brandenburg’s state premier Woidke has already announced that he could imagine a coalition government with the BSW. The BSW remains cautious when it comes to questions about government participation. Staffing the newbie BSW with people in Brandenburg is still a problem.
Simultaneously, the far-right AfD is being supported by more and more people. In Thuringia and Saxony, around one third of voters voted for the far-right party. In Thuringia, the AfD’s mini-Führer Björn Höcke was able to strengthened his own personal power base – and he did this while being an outspoken and publicly identified fascist (Nazi).
Brandenburg’s state police have the AfD under “state surveillance” as a potential danger to democracy. Elements in the party have already been officially classified as right-wing extremists seeking to destroy the state’s democratic institutions. Unfortunately, this will not prevent many voters from casting their vote for the party. The AfD’s propaganda machinery has – rather successfully – turned the scrutiny by the state police into an effective propaganda initiative. It even campaigned with the slogan “right-wing extremist.”
The election outcomes in Thuringia and Saxony could mean a boost for the AfD in Brandenburg. In Thuringia and Saxony the elections were a fiasco for the environmental Greens and the semi-socialist Linke. Things are looking bleak in Brandenburg. Although the Greens have more party members than ever before, public polling suggests that jumping over the 5% hurdle is going to be worryingly difficult to achieve.
The success of the BSW in Saxony and Thuringia is another nail in the coffin for one of the strongest political parties in Brandenburg: Die Linke (The Left). Many Linke voters defected to the BSW. The party has no clear message to its potential voters. Wanting to lower rents is not enough to motivate people.
Meanwhile as far as the “not-so” social (i.e. corporate) media is concerned, the neo-fascist AfD has already won the election. Indeed, the AfD won the battle for younger voters by a landslide in Saxony and Thuringia. The far right AfD has a far superior presence than all the democratic parties on social media channels such as TikTok and Telegram (the Russian messaging app used by ultranationalist right-wingers in both Russia and the USA).
The AfD outstrips Germany’s democratic parties online because it is more visible than all the others on platforms that matter to the young. If accessibility and visibility of TikTok contributions are shifting parliamentary seats, the AfD might even get a majority in Brandenburg’s state parliament. In addition, far more AfD candidates have their own TikTok profile than candidates from democratic parties.
Since fewer and fewer people are getting their news from TV and newspapers, social media has become a particularly big factor in the formation of political will. Young and undecided voters are particularly receptive to online AfD propaganda. In Brandenburg, people as young as 16 are allowed to vote in state elections. It seems that democratic parties – unlike the AfD – have almost given up on this sector of voters. This sort of non-strategy will end in bitter disappointment for Germany’s democratic political parties.
What kind of conclusion can one draw from all this?
If one looks at Saxony, for example, from a “progressive vs. reactionary” perspective, then conservatives (CDU: 32%), neo-fascists (AfD: 31%), and BSW: 12% hold 75% of all votes. The progressives have been decimated, with the social-democratic SPD 7%, the environmentalist Greens 5%, and the semi-socialist Linke at 5%. In other words, Saxony is not just the most conservative and reactionary state in Germany – some say “Dunkeldeutschland” – but the progressives in Saxony have more or less been obliterated.
A similar picture emerges in Thuringia where the neo-fascist AfD of neo-Nazi Führer Björn Höcke holds 33% of the parliamentary seats. The conservative CDU is at 24% and the BSW at 16%. Together, reactionary forces in Thuringia hold a whopping 73% of votes. By comparison, the semi-socialist Linke got 13%, the environmentalist Greens received a measly 3%, and the social-democratic SPD just 6%. Here too, progressives have been reduced to a fringe existence.
In short, in the two East-German states of Saxony and Thuringia, reactionary forces have captured ¾ of all votes. In turn, the progressive side of politics has largely been eliminated as a political force. Looking on the bright side of life, things are not that bleak in the western parts of Germany. A democratic society has securely been established in the western half. Still and most worryingly: the old Nazi and Soviet East-Germany is establishing itself as an area where roughly 1/3 of all people fancy neo-fascism.
Photo: (source: screenshot of https://www.katholisch.de)
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