Neither hope nor optimism. Elections in the UK
Looking at this manifesto and this shadow cabinet, as well as getting some rebellious Tories into the party, apart from the already apparent loss of confidence among its own electorate — the genocide in Gaza, the abandonment of more and more promises, the purges within its own ranks — even with a gigantic majority of seats in the House of Commons, this government will have a very fragile popular mandate. However, despite this they are still likely to have a considerable parliamentary majority and will be governing with a weak opposition in parliament. Based on the above observations, it can be assumed that by sticking to the policies of the current government, the future Labour government will not be able to pull the country out of its current economic stagnation. This could lead to growing discontent and even active opposition. This can partly come from the left and the trade unions, who will try to pressure Starmer’s government to make progressive changes. However, worryingly it may also lead to a growth in support for the far-right, following similar trends throughout Europe, who may capitalise on the social dissatisfaction with the Labour government — says Gavin Rae, former member of the Labour Party and observer of British politics.
Was it a shock for you that Rishi Sunak called snap elections in the first place, or had it crossed your mind?
It was a surprise, for me and for most people, even though everybody knew that the election was coming. Most commentators have predicted that it would be in the second half of the year. But not in the summer, during the football championships. Apart from the timing, also his party didn’t appear as ready for the elections. What we’ve been witnessing for a very long time is a gigantic crisis, that didn’t end with Sunak, in truth it has deepened since he was chosen by the party to lead the country. The economy has been dying, the socio-economic situation hasn’t changed a bit, and so on. It was a pure gamble, even for the cabinet ministers, politicians, and officials who, as we know now, has placed bets on the date of the elections. There was an apparent corruption behind the scenes, which reflects the state of the administration itself. It was a surprise, an unusual decision, after which they look finished.
And then this betting affair nails them to the ground.
We’ve got police officers, governmental officials betting on the date of the elections. This is a troubling picture to say the least. The conservative party looks like it’s been a part of an unpopularity contest, not a national election campaign.
Maybe it was this kind of gamble in which Sunak wanted to look weakened in order to, paradoxically, rally people behind him and take the initiative by calling snap elections.
What’s more, his entourage knows that the economic situation is not going anywhere, it’s completely stuck in this stagnant stage. Last year, the British economy growth by 0.1%. And it came from the public spending because the private sector is in recession. So they increased some state intervention, hoping that it would give some boost. And you know, it hasn’t had the effect. All of this combined led to a complete dissolution of the Tory party. You can’t see any major politicians on the front of the electoral battles, Sunak appears completely weak and lonely in his efforts. The whole campaign seems unprofessional, with numerous gaffs and unpredictability coming from the people who could decide on the date of the elections, on the environment in which they want to declare it, and all of that, which eventually would positively affect their campaign. And what are we getting? A complete chaos. Even in a situation that has been in the memo for years, such as the D-Day anniversary, that is a considerable thing on the isles. In the middle of it, Sunak decided to come back to England to take part in a televised interview. Who stayed in France? It was Keir Starmer, alongside other world leaders. From every angle, it looks horrible. No enthusiasm, no planning, no party support, nothing.
Moreover, former prime minister Theresa May, former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab and current levelling-up secretary Michael Gove all stood down, among other 132 MPs chose not to stand again at the general election on 4 July. Most of them from the Tory party.
All of them had probably foreseen that they were not going to be re-elected.
Even Rishi Sunak has problems with being re-elected.
Yes, that would be something unprecedented. But going to the polling, the Tories are averaging around 18-20% in different polls, that could leave them with less than 100 seats, some data puts them at 50–60 seats. This would be a historic wipe out of their party.
The YouGov poll from 25th of June is right now 18%, at the same time, Politico is 20% on 27th of June, differences are very narrow. They are polling at the same level as the Reform UK, which is between 17-18%.
So this is the other thing, what happened in the last elections in 2019 was that the Farage party, the Brexit Party, decided not to stand in the elections and support Boris Johnson. This kept the right-wing base united, and the slogan behind this manoeuvre was that the Tories will get Brexit done. We are in an extremely diverse situation today, and it’s a very dangerous one for both of the right-wing parties. The British electoral system makes it difficult for both of them to take any seats, look at the Reform UK polling, and then imagine that they might end up with something between 4–20 seats, first past the post makes it extremely difficult to win a seat if your electorate is divided.
When one looks at the polls, the day Farage decided to run at the beginning of June, the day he announced that Reform gained nearly 5-6%. What’s shocking is that it wasn’t the Conservative Party that lost the most of it support that switched to the far-right, it was actually the Labour Party. At this point it had nearly 47% of the support, now it’s polling around 36-41%,that’s something huge. Knowing that it isn’t exactly a truthf1u1l data, one can watch street interviews with new Farage voters, who declare that they used to vote for Labour while had been waiting for something like the Reform. However, in every poll, the left is loosing its support.
There is some part of the electorate that is moving from the left to right, even segments from the Labour party. You are right, nevertheless, I wouldn’t exaggerate. When the Reform declared the start of its campaign, the Labour went down and the Tories went down, but also the Libdems are rising, taking some support from the Labour, and also the Greens are polling at around 8% of the support. This is the left-wing protest vote against Starmer, which, looking back at the Greens’ support generally, is significant, but with our electoral system, they might get only 2 up to 4 seats. In the so-called Red Wall, northern and working-class seats, I think they are people who would vote normally Labour, and now they are going to vote for Farage. It’s not a colossal movement. However, it exists, and you can feel it in the polls, it would not kill Labour support right now. Starmer’s support is quite stable, but it’s not flying high, not as high as it was predicted at all. Starmer hasn’t expanded the Labour support, remember that in 2017 Corbyn won 40.3% of the votes, against a much stronger and united right. We will see what’s going to happen. Labour will win, that’s for sure, but to what extent? We do not know. The victory will be clear, but there is no enthusiasm for Labour and Starmer will enter government with very low popularity ratings. We rather see expanding listlessness of the labour voters, who generally just want the Tories gone. And their defeat will be massive, we haven’t seen something like that in the whole history of the Tory party.
What are you making of the election manifestos that have been published so far, are you seeing any major moves here?
I guess you’re suggesting we shall talk about Libdems manifesto. From where I stand, the Liberal Democrats’ manifesto, which might be treated as an outflanking manoeuvre against Starmer’s leaning to the right, is not as groundbreaking as many think. Their main capital and strategy is their ability to shiver in-between both major parties. Out-lefting Labour has happened before, for example during Blairites rule and the unlawful invasion of Iraq, which was opposed by them. Nevertheless, it’s hard to say that if they can make up something from this. People remember that later they supported the Tories and supported austerity measures. On the other hand, the Greens have situated themselves strictly on the left of the Labour Party, which, while looking at Starmer, doesn’t seem so difficult nowadays. They have taken on the anti-genocide position towards Palestine, increasing public spending and investment, renationalisation of key sectors of the economy while not abandoning the environmental agenda, that has been scrapped lately by Starmer. They seem very consistent in their left-opposition approach. When it comes, to the Labour’s manifesto, I am certain that it cannot bring any change in the polls. There has been already a certain disillusion among left-wing voters, they believe that if Starmer comes to power his cabinet will be the most right-wing one in the history of the party. The Starmerites has been following the Tories on every major issue, immigration, opposing strike actions, the cost of living crisis, they have also abandoned their pledges to fight climate change.
The main message has been: ‘we don’t want to scare Tory voters’.
Exactly, there is a certain belief behind that message, that the traditional working-class voters will stay with Labour. So this tactic is aimed at centre-right voters. Nevertheless, there are some left-wing propositions in the manifesto. Most of them remaining from the 2019 manifesto, for example bringing railways into public ownership, strengthening of the worker’s rights or removing tax exemptions of private schools, these are all in the manifesto, let’s call them social-democratic policies on the table. At the same time, the Labour Party has ruled out any redistributive taxation, what’s more, it accepts contemporary spending plans, and they are going to stick to them. They will neither increase taxes for the highest earners, nor corporation taxes and so on. Under Margaret Thatcher the corporation tax was 36%, now it’s 25%. Rising it would give them billions of pounds ready to use in the public sector. They even refuse to borrow money to use for investment. Meanwhile, councils are going bankrupt, just in the city where I was brought up: Birmingham. The same goes for the universities, schools and so on all around the country. Even Gordon Brown’s or Tony Blair’s governments were much more progressive in many areas, particularly in the manifestos that they fought elections on.
How do you assess this approach taken by Keir Starmer?
I would say that there hasn’t been any boost coming from the manifesto, but the message is that we have to get the Tories out, the outrage towards them is coming from far beyond the left. The atmosphere currently is that we have to get to government, and we will do anything to get it done, and meanwhile we will not scare voters from supporting Labour. The current support for Starmer stems from a dislike of the Tories, rather than a belief in the manifesto, programme solutions or competence of the Labour leadership.
At the same time, the purge of left-wing leaning MPs has taken place, many of them banned from running in this elections. The main example is, of course, Jeremy Corbyn, but there are more of them.
Yes, and that’s killing any kind of optimism. The votes that these people would get for the Labour Party are going towards the Greens, or some independent socialist candidates. However, they are not going to translate themselves into seats. That’s the price of our electoral system. Interestingly enough, Starmer’s project would not get a majority in a proportional system. They would be forced into some kind of coalition. That shows us that the crisis is not only among the Tories, it’s also here, on the left. I believe that this will make itself visible to all when we see both the turnout and combined support for both of the major parties on the 4th of July.
What are the prospects of the future Labour government?
Looking at this manifesto and this shadow cabinet, as well as getting some rebellious Tories into the party, apart from the already apparent loss of confidence among its own electorate — the genocide in Gaza, the abandonment of more and more promises, the purges within its own ranks — even with a gigantic majority of seats in the House of Commons, this government will have a very fragile popular mandate. However, despite this they are still likely to have a considerable parliamentary majority and will be governing with a weak opposition in parliament.
Based on the above observations, it can be assumed that by sticking to the policies of the current government, the future Labour government will not be able to pull the country out of its current economic stagnation. This could lead to growing discontent and even active opposition. This can partly come from the left and the trade unions, who will try to pressure Starmer’s government to make progressive changes. However, worryingly it may also lead to a growth in support for the far-right, following similar trends throughout Europe, who may capitalise on the social dissatisfaction with the Labour government.
After the election, it may well be that the lack of any strong leadership and political direction inside the Tory Party, could open the way for Nigel Farage to emerge as the strongest political figure on the right. In fact, it is possible that Farage and his supporters will seek to effectively take over the Conservative Party through allying with its most right-wing elements. There is no longer any real ‘moderate’ wing of the Conservative Party, and therefore it may move further to the right and merge with Farage and the Reform Party, in a similar way that the Tea Party essentially morphed into Trumpism in the Republican Party.
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